October 2025
Retail sales in Lubbock for the first three quarters of 2025 show modest growth compared to the same period last year, with gains barely keeping pace with inflation.
However, sales from September 2024 to September 2025 increased by 5.85%, signaling steady consumer activity. Building activity remains mixed - commercial construction continues to lag, while residential projects have shown slight year-over-year improvement. Vehicle sales, both new and used, continue to trend upward, and tourism remains strong with football season boosting the travel sector. Looking ahead, potential interest rate cuts could further support residential and commercial growth. A prolonged government shutdown, however, could slow broader economic momentum.
In September 2025, retail sales in Lubbock rose 5.85% compared to September 2024. Year-to-date sales reached $90.02 million, up 2.15%, or $1.89 million, from the same period last year. New vehicle sales totaled 1,114 units for the month, up 7.43% from September 2024, while used vehicle sales increased 9.86% to 2,016 units.
Hotel/Motel tax collections for September 2025 amounted to $855,077, reflecting a 26.43% increase from a year earlier. Air travel also saw moderate growth, with 50,541 boardings recorded at the Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport - up 4.16% from September 2024.
Employment numbers have not been published due to the government shutdown. We continue to doubt the veracity of the numbers because of the fear of ICE raids among employers and households.
The combined value of residential and commercial building permits issued in September reached $109.68 million, up 61.57% from last year's total of $67.89 million - the highest level since April 2025. Despite this, overall activity has slowed from previous years, with commercial construction below norms. Year-to-date commercial activity is down 3.5%, or $140.6 million. Residential construction, on the other hand, saw a modest 1.87% uptick, or $70 million. Overall, residential construction is driven by both single family and multi-purpose projects - up 2.95%, or $127 million. Notable developments include a $67 million student housing project on the Texas Tech campus and a $26 million apartment complex, along with various small-scale remodels across the city.
A total of 184 residential permits were issued during the month, up 62.83% from September 2024. Year-to-date, 1,254 permits have been issued, steady from the prior year. Mortgage rates remain steady at 6.00%, though that represents a 9.43% decrease compared to September 2024. The median home price for the month was $240,705.
Energy markets saw mixed trends. As of September 2025, oil prices were down 17.09% year-over-year, while natural gas prices surged 24.58%. The number of active oil rigs fell from 12 in September 2024 to 10 in September 2025.
Agricultural markets were similarly varied. Wheat prices dropped 22.79%, corn prices remained steady, and cotton prices declined 4.25%. Fat cattle prices, however, rose sharply by 29.57%, while milk prices fell 24.61%. With harvest season underway, cotton prospects appear improved. Some gins estimate they will gin 20-30% higher than last year, while several gins anticipate processing dryland cotton for the first time in two to three years. Hopefully fall weather will be cooperative for gathering crops and ginning.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 252.66 | $ 288.49 | $ 254.82 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 8,992,841 | $ 9,168,664 | $ 8,496,174 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 90,015,389 | $ 81,022,548 | $ 88,122,970 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,114 | 1,199 | 1,037 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 2,016 | 2,431 | 1,835 |
| Airline Boardings | 50,541 | 50,304 | 48,521 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 855,077 | $ 846,646 | $ 676,326 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 187,509 | 187,509 | 174,937 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 4.00 | % 4.00 | % 3.40 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 180,018 | 180,018 | 168,976 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 174,700 | 174,700 | 161,800 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,026.00 |
| Gas | 78,531 | 78,554 | 78,055 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.000 | % 6.000 | % 6.625 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 109,683,221 | $ 72,196,902 | $ 67,886,049 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 831,052,479 | $ 721,369,258 | $ 803,364,570 |
| Residential Starts | 184 | 91 | 113 |
| Year To Date Starts | 1,254 | 1,070 | 1,253 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 240,705 | $ 288,388 | $ 235,000 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 58.41 | $ 64.56 | $ 70.45 |
| Natural Gas | $ 2.99 | $ 3.12 | $ 2.40 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 4.81 | $ 5.01 | $ 6.23 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 241.00 | $ 237.00 | $ 186.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.01 | $ 4.29 | $ 4.01 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 62.34 | $ 63.03 | $ 65.11 |
| Milk | $ 17.00 | $ 17.60 | $ 22.55 |
Heads up, it’s time for the legal spiel!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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