Lubbock Economic Analysis

Retail sales slowed both month-to-date and year-to-date, showing only modest gains - possibly indicating that the Lubbock economy is starting to cool.

In June 2025, retail sales in Lubbock rose by 0.30% compared to June 2024. Year-to-date sales reached $62.37 million, an increase of $1.35 million, or 2.22% from the same period last year. New vehicle sales totaled 984 units for the month, up 10.69% from June 2024, while used vehicle sales rose 2.97%, with 1,838 units sold.

Tourism activity declined in June 2025, as hotel/motel tax collections fell to $761,329 - down 14.39% from the previous year. However, air travel showed slight improvement, with boardings at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport rising to 50,923, an increase of 1.14% from June 2024.

Employment in Lubbock has shown steady growth over the past year. According to the Employer Survey, employment rose by 9.07%, adding about 14,600 jobs.

The Household Survey, meanwhile, reported a smaller gain of 2.09%, or 3,683 jobs. Since June 2024, the labor force has grown by 1.61%, and average weekly wages increased by 1.75%. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate stands at 3.60%, down from 12.20% a year earlier.

In June 2025, the total value of residential and commercial building permits reached $111.43 million, an increase of $30.66 million, or 37.97%, compared to June 2024. Commercial activity drove most of this increase, rising $46.4 million from the previous year, while residential activity declined by $15.8 million.

Year-to-date, total building activity is down 4.42% from the previous year, representing a $25.28 million decrease. Residential activity for the year is up $92.7 million - boosted by two large multi-residential projects - while commercial activity is down $117.9 million year-to-date.

Commercial building activity month-to-date is up $46.4 million - or 156.6% - compared to June 2024, largely driven by continued permitting for the new Lubbock Cooper school, which includes a gym and auditorium.

Residential permits in June 2025 totaled $35.2 million, a decline of $15.7 million - or 44.7% - compared to June 2024. A total of 97 residential permits were issued during the month, down 29.2% year-over-year. Year-to-date, 828 permits have been issued, reflecting a 5.05% decrease from the same period last year. Elevated mortgage rates - currently at 6.50%, though slightly below last year's 6.875% - continue to weigh on residential construction. The median home price rose to $240,000, marking a 2.46% increase over the past year.

As of June 2025, oil prices declined 20.16% compared to the same time last year, while natural gas prices surged by 39.92%. The number of active oil rigs fell from 14 in May to 8 in June. In agriculture, wheat prices dipped 0.16%, corn prices rose 2.53%, and cotton prices dropped 1.82% year-over-year. Fat cattle prices climbed 20.00%, while milk prices fell 12.50%. Overall, recent rainfall has improved crop conditions, and outlooks are more favorable. Continued precipitation and moderate temperatures, however, remain essential for sustained crop production.