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July 2025

Retail sales slowed both month-to-date and year-to-date, showing only modest gains - possibly indicating that the Lubbock economy is starting to cool.

In June 2025, retail sales in Lubbock rose by 0.30% compared to June 2024. Year-to-date sales reached $62.37 million, an increase of $1.35 million, or 2.22% from the same period last year. New vehicle sales totaled 984 units for the month, up 10.69% from June 2024, while used vehicle sales rose 2.97%, with 1,838 units sold.

Tourism activity declined in June 2025, as hotel/motel tax collections fell to $761,329 - down 14.39% from the previous year. However, air travel showed slight improvement, with boardings at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport rising to 50,923, an increase of 1.14% from June 2024.

Employment in Lubbock has shown steady growth over the past year. According to the Employer Survey, employment rose by 9.07%, adding about 14,600 jobs.

The Household Survey, meanwhile, reported a smaller gain of 2.09%, or 3,683 jobs. Since June 2024, the labor force has grown by 1.61%, and average weekly wages increased by 1.75%. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate stands at 3.60%, down from 12.20% a year earlier.

In June 2025, the total value of residential and commercial building permits reached $111.43 million, an increase of $30.66 million, or 37.97%, compared to June 2024. Commercial activity drove most of this increase, rising $46.4 million from the previous year, while residential activity declined by $15.8 million.

Year-to-date, total building activity is down 4.42% from the previous year, representing a $25.28 million decrease. Residential activity for the year is up $92.7 million - boosted by two large multi-residential projects - while commercial activity is down $117.9 million year-to-date.

Commercial building activity month-to-date is up $46.4 million - or 156.6% - compared to June 2024, largely driven by continued permitting for the new Lubbock Cooper school, which includes a gym and auditorium.

Residential permits in June 2025 totaled $35.2 million, a decline of $15.7 million - or 44.7% - compared to June 2024. A total of 97 residential permits were issued during the month, down 29.2% year-over-year. Year-to-date, 828 permits have been issued, reflecting a 5.05% decrease from the same period last year. Elevated mortgage rates - currently at 6.50%, though slightly below last year's 6.875% - continue to weigh on residential construction. The median home price rose to $240,000, marking a 2.46% increase over the past year.

As of June 2025, oil prices declined 20.16% compared to the same time last year, while natural gas prices surged by 39.92%. The number of active oil rigs fell from 14 in May to 8 in June. In agriculture, wheat prices dipped 0.16%, corn prices rose 2.53%, and cotton prices dropped 1.82% year-over-year. Fat cattle prices climbed 20.00%, while milk prices fell 12.50%. Overall, recent rainfall has improved crop conditions, and outlooks are more favorable. Continued precipitation and moderate temperatures, however, remain essential for sustained crop production.

 

Economic Pulse


Economic Components Current Month Last Month Last Year
Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) $ 263.10 $ 312.62 $ 274.52
       
Sales Tax Collections $ 8,499,730 $ 8,585,302 $ 8,474,464
Sales Tax Collection-YTD $ 62,366,923 $ 53,867,194 $ 61,013,525
       
New Vehicle Sales 984 1,188 889
Used Vehicle Sales 1,838 2,224 1,785
       
Airline Boardings 50,923 55,167 50,349
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax $ 761,329 $ 868,786 $ 889,257
       
Population 272,086 272,086 263,648
Employment - CLF 187,028 187,086 184,062
Unemployment Rate % 3.60 % 3.40 % 4.10
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) 180,261 180,814 176,578
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 175,500 176,100 160,900
Average Weekly Wages $ 1,044.00 $ 1,044.00 $ 1,026.00
       
Gas 79,245 79,381 78,153
       
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates % 6.500 % 6.750 % 6.875
Building Permits Dollar Amount $ 111,425,636 $ 63,322,693 $ 80,763,617
Year to Date Permits $ 546,140,508 $ 434,714,872 $ 571,418,743
Residential Starts 97 122 137
Year To Date Starts 828 731 872
Median House Sold Price $ 240,000 $ 238,280 $ 234,230
       
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle 8 14 12
Oil Price Per Barrel $ 66.15 $ 75.30 $ 82.85
Natural Gas $ 3.54 $ 3.99 $ 2.53
Wheat Per Bushel $ 6.35 $ 6.31 $ 6.36
Fed Cattle Per CWT $ 228.00 $ 225.00 $ 190.00
Corn Per Bushel $ 4.06 $ 4.37 $ 3.96
Cotton (Cents Per Pound) $ 63.75 $ 63.32 $ 64.93
Milk $ 17.50 $ 18.68 $ 20.00

Heads up, it’s time for the legal spiel!

This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions. 

 


Economic Pulse Charts

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2025 Economic Analysis

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2024 Economic Analysis

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2023 Economic Analysis

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