February 2026
Lubbock's economy remains steady, though recent data points to emerging softness.
Retail growth continues YTD, while tourism is mixed. Residential construction projects are up modestly, while commercial activity lags last year. Energy and agricultural commodities are lower.
YTD retails sales are up 4%; however, January 2026 sales declineo 5% compared to January 2025, indicating some short-term softness amid overall growth. New car sales increased 5%, while used car sales rose 4%.
Tourism showed mixed results in January 2026. Airline boardings declined 7%, mainly due to reduced Texas Tech travel, while hotel motel tax collections increased 14% as the university hosted events and several mid-sized conventions.
Updated employment data from the state has been delayed due to the federal government shutdown. In the absence of official figures-and amid ongoing ICE-related concerns -the job market may be weaker than current indicators suggest.
Mortgage rates are below 6%, with single-family sales up 7%. Home prices show a modest decline of 3%. Total residential activity, including multifamily sales, is up 14%, driven by home sales and a new apartment complex in West Lubbock, City View.
Commercial building activity is up 50%, reflecting construction of a new West Lubbock pump station valued at $24 million.
Energy markets were significantly lower YTD, with oil prices down 14% and natural gas prices down 28%.
Agricultural production is also down YTD across all markets. Recent rains and snow have provided early winter moisture, which will need to continue into the spring.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 245.36 | $ 236.10 | $ 248.20 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 9,313,096 | $ 9,443,527 | $ 7,890,156 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 11,844,895 | $ 9,313,096 | $ 12,450,488 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,102 | 946 | 1,049 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,757 | 1,606 | 1,687 |
| Airline Boardings | 37,269 | 53,033 | 40,046 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 802,515 | $ 985,229 | $ 704,443 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 0 | 187,538 | 186,596 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 0.00 | % 3.10 | % 3.50 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 0 | 181,679 | 180,019 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 0 | 176,700 | 73,800 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 |
| Gas | 79,408 | 79,353 | 78,955 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 5.875 | % 5.875 | % 6.875 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 102,149,614 | $ 54,160,131 | $ 94,912,457 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 102,149,614 | $ 1,027,131,249 | $ 94,912,457 |
| Residential Starts | 130 | 122 | 139 |
| Year To Date Starts | 130 | 1,620 | 139 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 227,000 | $ 240,000 | $ 233,495 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 62.32 | $ 61.66 | $ 72.53 |
| Natural Gas | $ 3.03 | $ 3.09 | $ 4.20 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 5.42 | $ 5.03 | $ 6.13 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 243.00 | $ 235.50 | $ 203.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.30 | $ 4.20 | $ 5.02 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 61.04 | $ 60.39 | $ 63.39 |
| Milk | $ 15.06 | $ 14.92 | $ 20.31 |
Prepare for the majestic dance of disclaimers!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2026 Economic Analysis
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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