August 2025
Retail sales are up 1.57% year-to-date but fell 2.48% in July 2025 compared to the same month last year - slower than the pace of inflation.
This points to signs of a cooling economy heading into the third quarter. On a positive note, employment continues to grow in 2025, supported by a low unemployment rate. Residential building activity shows solid year-to-date growth, while commercial building activity remains below last year's levels. Tourism improved from last year, and both new and used car sales posted gains. Still, changes remain at both the national and state levels, with inflation lingering and the Federal Reserve weighing potential interest rate cuts.
In July 2025, retail sales in Lubbock declined 2.48% compared to July 2024. Year-to-date sales totaled $71.85 million, an increase of $1.11 million, or 1.57%, from the same period last year. New vehicle sales reached 980 units for the month, up 21.44% from July 2024, while used vehicle sales rose 16.89%, with 1,952 units sold.
Tourism activity also increased in July 2025, as hotel/motel tax collections rose to $1.04 million - up 30.27% from a year earlier. Air travel showed modest growth, with 52,450 boardings at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport, a 6.08% increase from July 2024.
Employment in Lubbock has continued to grow over the past year. The Employer Survey reported job growth of 8.89% adding about 14,200 positions. The Household Survey showed a smaller gain of 1.29%, or 2,285 jobs. Since July 2024, the labor force has expanded by 1.02%, while average weekly wages have risen 1.75%. As of July 2025, the unemployment rate stood at 3.80%, down 7.32% from a year ago.
Building activity also strengthened. In July 2025, the total value of residential and commercial building permits reached $103.03 million, an increase of $18.36 million, or 21.69%. Residential activity was the primary driver of building permits. Residential building activity rose $30.5 million, or 80.5%, from July 2024, while commercial activity declined by $12.1 million, or 25.9%. Year-to-date, residential activity reached $94.5 million, up 38.9%, while commercial activity totaled $130.1 million, down 25.9% from last year.
A total of 151 residential permits were issued during the month, up 16.15% year-over-year. Year-to-date, 979 permits have been issued, reflecting a 2.30% decline from the same period last year. Elevated mortgage rates - currently at 6.375%, slightly below last year's 6.50% - continue to weigh on residential construction. However, the median home price rose to $286,943, marking a 22.98% increase over the past year.
Energy prices showed mixed results. As of July 2025, oil prices were down 17.98% compared to a year earlier, while natural gas prices surged 26.34%. The number of active oil rigs increased from 8 in June to 11 in July.
Agricultural markets were varied. Wheat prices fell 8.36%, corn prices slipped 1.85%, and milk dropped 17.65%. Meanwhile, cotton prices rose 4.69%, and fat cattle prices climbed 21.26% year-over-year.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 277.15 | $ 263.10 | $ 273.52 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 9,486,961 | $ 8,499,730 | $ 9,728,628 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 71,853,884 | $ 62,366,923 | $ 70,742,153 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 980 | 984 | 807 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,952 | 1,838 | 1,670 |
| Airline Boardings | 52,450 | 50,923 | 49,443 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 1,037,536 | $ 761,329 | $ 796,464 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 186,621 | 187,063 | 184,739 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 3.80 | % 3.60 | % 4.10 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 179,489 | 180,304 | 177,204 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 174,000 | 175,500 | 159,800 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,026.00 |
| Gas | 79,193 | 79,245 | 78,903 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.375 | % 6.500 | % 6.500 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 103,031,847 | $ 111,425,636 | $ 84,669,415 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 649,172,355 | $ 546,140,508 | $ 656,088,158 |
| Residential Starts | 151 | 97 | 130 |
| Year To Date Starts | 979 | 828 | 1,002 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 286,943 | $ 240,000 | $ 233,330 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 63.70 | $ 66.15 | $ 77.66 |
| Natural Gas | $ 2.83 | $ 3.54 | $ 2.24 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 5.04 | $ 6.35 | $ 5.50 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 234.00 | $ 228.00 | $ 192.98 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 3.71 | $ 4.06 | $ 3.78 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 64.03 | $ 63.75 | $ 61.16 |
| Milk | $ 17.50 | $ 17.50 | $ 21.25 |
Heads up, it’s time for the legal spiel!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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