September 2024
Retail sales have remained strong throughout the year with month-to-month increases, both new and used vehicle sales bounced back from last month with increases in sales.
Employment remains strong and wage growth is up. While inflation appears to have moderated closer to the FED target of 2%, the FED reduced borrowing costs by 50 basis points. Lubbock's economy is steady and with the 50-basis point drop in interest rates we will see how the overall effect will begin to play out within the economy.
Retail sales for August 2024 are up 9.14% and YTD retail sales are up 5.83% from last year. New vehicle sales are up 11.38% from last August and used vehicle sales are also up 4.66%.
Hotel/ Motel tax collections are down 8.52%, while airline boardings are up 4.09% from last August.
Workers employed are up 2.02% (or 3,200) over the last 12-months on the Employer Survey and 1.73% (or 2,856) on the Household Survey. The labor force has increased 1.87% compared to August 2023 and wages are up 1.18%. Unemployment rate is 3.70 for August 2024 compared to 3.60 for August 2023. Overall, the Lubbock job market continues in a positive trend with both gains in total employment and wage growth.
August building permits totaled $79.39 million, down $10.93 million or 12.11% from last year. There were 138 new residential starts in August 2024, down 22.91% from last year. The median house price for August 2024 was $234 thousand, down 3.69% from one year ago.
Residential building activity shows a modest increase of $20 million, or 6.49% ahead of last year. Residential building activity is slow for 2024 compared to prior years, hopefully with the reduction in interest rates, there will be more activity as we look out into 2025. Mortgage rates at 6.00% are 17.24% lower than last year's.
Total building activity in August 2024 compared to August 2023 showed a decrease of $11 million in both residential and commercial. Compared to last year, residential is down $2 million, roughly 3%, and commercial is down $9 million, or 17%. There were fewer commercial building permits issued in August 2024 compared to August 2023. Overall, commercial building activity for 2024 has slowed considerably due to higher interest costs in reflection to 2023. Interest rate reductions are welcome to spur building activity.
Oil prices compared to last year are down 20.37% and natural gas is also down 17.39%. Oil rig count remains steady at 12 from July 2024 to August 2024. Wheat is down 1.76%, corn is down 11.45% and cotton is down 24.17% since last year. Fat cattle are down 2.38% from one year ago, while milk prices are up 29.58%. Agriculture desperately needs the passage of a new farm bill. Harvesting crops should begin in October.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 8,884,642 | $ 9,728,628 | $ 8,140,563 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 79,626,796 | $ 70,742,153 | $ 75,242,836 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,116 | 807 | 1,002 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 2,180 | 1,670 | 2,083 |
| Airline Boardings | 48,970 | 49,443 | 47,045 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 883,716 | $ 796,464 | $ 966,050 |
| Population | 263,648 | 263,648 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 174,808 | 174,397 | 171,602 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 3.70 | % 3.90 | % 3.60 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 168,291 | 167,561 | 165,435 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 161,400 | 159,800 | 158,200 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,026.00 | $ 1,026.00 | $ 1,014.00 |
| Gas | 78,029 | 78,903 | 77,690 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.000 | % 6.500 | % 7.250 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 79,390,362 | $ 84,669,415 | $ 90,324,407 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 735,478,521 | $ 656,088,158 | $ 977,522,715 |
| Residential Starts | 138 | 130 | 179 |
| Year To Date Starts | 1,140 | 1,002 | 1,270 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 234,028 | $ 233,330 | $ 243,000 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 71.61 | $ 77.83 | $ 89.93 |
| Natural Gas | $ 2.28 | $ 2.21 | $ 2.76 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.69 | $ 6.31 | $ 6.81 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 183.40 | $ 192.98 | $ 187.87 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.10 | $ 3.78 | $ 4.63 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 61.48 | $ 61.16 | $ 81.08 |
| Milk | $ 23.00 | $ 21.25 | $ 17.75 |
| Index* | $ 275.30 | $ 273.52 | $ 299.83 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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