September 2025
Modest growth across most areas of Lubbock's economy has kept activity moving forward this summer.
Retail sales remain ahead of last year by a modest 1.75% - still below inflation levels. Vehicle sales, both new and used, have remained steady, while tourism has slowed. Employment continues to show gains, with job growth contributing to a small uptick in the overall employment rate. Building activity, however, remains mixed; commercial construction is down, while residential activity has grown year-to-date. With the first interest rate cut this month and further cuts expected, additional support for the economy is anticipated.
In August 2025, retail sales in Lubbock rose 3.20% compared to August 2024. Year-to-date sales reached $81.02 million, up 1.75%, or $1.4 million, from the same period last year. New vehicle sales totaled 1,199 units for the month, an increase of 7.44% from August 2024, while used vehicle sales climbed 11.51% to 2,431 units.
Hotel/Motel tax collections in August 2025 amounted to $846,646, reflecting a 4.19% decline from a year earlier. Air travel showed a modest increase, with 50,304 boardings at the Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport - up 2.72% compared to August 2024.
Employment in Lubbock has continued to expand over the past year. The Employer Survey reported job growth of 8.24%, adding approximately 13,300 positions. The Household Survey showed a smaller gain of 1.31%, or 2,335 jobs Since August 2024, the labor force has grown by 1.50%, while average weekly wages have increased by 1.75%. As of August 2025, the unemployment rate stood at 4.00%, up 5.26% from a year ago.
In August 2025, the combined value of residential and commercial building permits totaled $72.2 million, a decrease of $7.19 million, or 9.06%, from last year.
Building activity continues to lag compared to both last year and prior years, particularly in the commercial sector. Commercial construction is down $140 million, or 37.38%, from August 2024. By contrast, residential construction is up $125.5 million, or 34.68%, year-to-date. When adjusting for two major projects in student housing and a new apartment complex earlier this year, residential activity is still up $38 million, or 11.4%
A total of 91 residential permits were issued during the month, down 34.06% from August 2024. Year-to-date, 1,070 permits have been issued, reflecting a 6.14% decline from the prior year. Mortgage rates remain steady at 6.00%. With rates holding steady and the median home price rising to $288,388 (a 23.23% increase over the past year), there is cautious optimism for a rebound in new construction.
Energy markets posted mixed results. As of August 2025, oil prices were down 9.29% compared to a year earlier, while natural gas prices surged 28.93%. The number of active oil rigs fell from 12 in August 2024 to 8 in August 2025.
Agricultural markets were also varied. Wheat prices dropped 19.84%, while corn prices rose 4.63%. Cotton prices increased 2.52%, and fat cattle prices climbed sharply by 29.23%. In contrast, milk prices fell 23.48%. Looking ahead, cotton production is promising as the South Plains enters harvest, with an estimated yield of around 4 million bales this year.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 288.49 | $ 277.15 | $ 275.30 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 9,168,664 | $ 9,486,961 | $ 8,884,642 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 81,022,548 | $ 71,853,884 | $ 79,626,796 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,199 | 980 | 1,116 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 2,431 | 1,952 | 2,180 |
| Airline Boardings | 50,304 | 52,450 | 48,970 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 846,646 | $ 1,037,536 | $ 883,716 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 187,509 | 186,693 | 184,741 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 4.00 | % 3.80 | % 3.80 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 180,018 | 179,569 | 177,683 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 174,000 | 174,700 | 161,400 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,026.00 |
| Gas | 78,554 | 79,193 | 78,029 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.000 | % 6.375 | % 6.000 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 72,196,902 | $ 103,031,847 | $ 79,390,362 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 721,369,258 | $ 649,172,355 | $ 735,478,521 |
| Residential Starts | 91 | 151 | 138 |
| Year To Date Starts | 1,070 | 979 | 1,140 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 288,388 | $ 286,943 | $ 234,028 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 64.56 | $ 63.70 | $ 71.17 |
| Natural Gas | $ 3.12 | $ 2.83 | $ 2.42 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 5.01 | $ 5.04 | $ 6.25 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 237.00 | $ 234.00 | $ 183.40 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.29 | $ 3.71 | $ 4.10 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 63.03 | $ 64.03 | $ 61.48 |
| Milk | $ 17.60 | $ 17.50 | $ 23.00 |
Heads up, it’s time for the legal spiel!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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